The Wild Rose Express coming round the mountain

Conservatives are mantra chant economics by introducing the false idea that this isn't a real recession. Two quarters of productivity decline is only one single number. There are other numbers that point to a reality that they know is just around on the other side of the mountain. Never dismiss just the statistic, begin by observing the economic problems in the People's Republic of China. Witness the numbers of ships sitting at anchor waiting around the globe, for cargo any cargo. The currency has declined. Stock markets kiss the bear. Interest rates are artificially too low. Take it all together. 

The 2008 recession was short and quick simply because it begun in the financial sector in the American, Fanny Mae debacle. The only reason that Canada appeared to do better was that the last set of banking regulations preserved economic stability. Harper took credit for it. In reality Paul Martin was the Liberal architect.

Thirty six thousand Albertans have been laid off. Small businesses will go belly up. Houses will stream onto the market, and worse a rapid rise in bankruptcies guaranteed early next year. Three Lake Freighters, are laid up in Toronto Harbour, you can see them from Sugar Beach. Its the first time since 1989, another stock market driven that ships were tied up. I've experienced the 1974 recession, the 1981 Reagancession, the 1988 recession which stretched through 1993 eliminated when Clinton took over the White House, 2008 blowup Fanny Mae Bushcession. I worked in pulp and paper during a localized industrial recession. That's the economic history.

I know something about recessions. And this one is far more serious than the Conservatives are willing to admit before the election. Its the same bunch of economic knuckle heads in Alberta who put that province into a very poor economic condition to line pockets by totally depending on the performance of a single natural nonrenewable resource. Worse still the incoming government is left holding the bag for a total economic disaster. It didn't matter which political party came into power in Alberta. The Harper type Conservatives literally raided the pantry and left everyone else holding the bag.

The only reason that things appear stable is because the Harper government is deliberately controlling the artificially low interest rate which shelters most people. Mark this... And mark this well. After October election, when the foppish Joe Oliver is no longer Finance Minister, regardless of which party wins the election, the base interest rates have to start rising, then that is when the real hardship on you is going to be felt for at least three probably four years.

Statistically, we are in recession but that interest rate has to come up to support, to stabilize the currency. Paul Martin is on the Liberal staff to encourage deliberate deficit spending. And that would be the same regardless. Why? Its because the Harper government rode the oil pony without making any effort to support the manufacturing sector in central and maritime Canada.

Harper has got it totally wrong. The next government has to be interventionist no matter who gets in power. He knows that the interest rates are going to rise after the end of October coming. The level of private debt in Canada is obscene right now. No politician is dealing with that as yet. The reality is that the Bank of Canada is protecting Harper by suppressing interest rates.

Raising interest rates does something to the economic situation. First it does support and stall the currency from going into a tail spin. Second it will only have positive results in the artificially obscene real estate market by causing a decline in housing prices, the correction that is coming like a locomotive pulling a train through a tunnel - you can hear it and very soon you will see it. Combined with the artificially low interest rates, the astronomically high housing prices, the collapse of the dollar, the recent downturn in stocks globally, the downturn in international industrial output, that train is coming. This isn't the end, what you are looking at is the cow catcher

Betrayed

People kind of really miss the set of ethical points in this sad set of events regarding the Duffy fraud trial. First, Duffy (and colleagues) are alleged to filed substantial fraudulent expense claims. It doesn't matter whether or not the amount is repaid. Let's put it this way. A murderer kills a victim. The crime is murder. Gun, knife, poison or something lethal, is only relevant to the fact that this person unlawfully killed another.

... The same here. The crime is fraud, it matters little whether or not it was for money, goods or love. Think about this. It isn't the matter as to the quantity or amount of money or benefit. The crime is the manner of how that said target was acquired. It doesn't really matter about restitution. Repaying the money may mitigate punishment, but does little to diminish intent. Duffy is alleged to have filed fake residential information and received benefits related to the false information he provided. He also is accused of falsely (fraudulently) filled claims to receive coverage of expenses on journeys to Conservative political events by claiming them as business trips related to Senate business. So the money is of little issue other than being benefit, its the method by which that money was sought.

... Second. People must understand that it doesn't matter whether or not the amount gleaned from a fraud is $90K or Ninety dollars. What is emerging is a concerted effort by Nigel Wright to mitigate Duffy's activities by repaying the amount in question before the Senate auditors could scour the books. This was a coverup scheme emanating from one or more executives in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).

... Now, the truth is Harper might not have known the specifics. There is more than sufficient evidence to indicate that he might have known about the plan, there is no smoking cigarette. What can be proved at the moment. Harper appointed Nigel Wright to his staff. Harper recommended Duffy for Senate appointment. Harper chose every single one of his PMO associates and executives. Its Harper's office. Regardless of what he might have, or might not have known, the grand architect of this corrupt edifice is Stephen Harper, he is totally and completely responsible.

... Remember a long time ago when the Liberals were in scandal, and Harper, the chief opposition leader, demanded that government be clear and accountable. Harper is totally one hundred percent accountable for the actions of his staff. It is why the Conservatives picked him to be leader. It is why people voted for him. Yet on something basically obvious as this set of events, Harper still hasn't lived up to his very own, promised standards of accountability.

... More confusion here about Nigel Wright. Since it has been his testimony under oath. Nigel Wright did attempt to arrange the hush money payoff to Duffy. So people seem to view him as honest and loyal. Both are admirable qualities however, this doesn't make him a good guy. Wright is a bad guy. He tried to payoff hush money to Duffy. That's no good deed. Its a bad thing.

... Here's the reality. Yes this whole affair insults Canadians. But whether or not they like it, its the supporters of the Conservatives that have been wrongly served. It matters little whether or not there was any criminality. What is very real, is that they wanted a government that is clear, responsible and accountable. Harper didn't deliver on any of those hopes at all. Conservatives are completely betrayed.

Not the money honey. Its the porpoise

 $90,000 or $90, its not the amount. So much focus is put on the money, not the reason for all these machinations. Duffy is alleged to make fraudulent claims. On The Right Dishonorable Stephen Harper's broad instructions to cover up Duffy's nefarious activities, he wanted the details suppressed from public exposure. Its hush money.

... The only reason to pay hush money is for the recipient of the money to have the purple-traitor, say nothing. Its Senator Duffy that is on trial. The fact that Harper factually didn't know about it is irrelevant. The hush money was orchestrated through his office, not Wright's office, not Duffy's office but through Harper's office.

... And using the news media as a source, Mr. Nigel Wright, under oath just admitted that general linkage. Never mind that his testimony demands the listener to suspend logical assumptions. First assumption is that while the payment was from his personal account, in paying any money to Duffy was intended to cover up a direct paper trail. Second suspension of belief is that the Conservative Party refusing to pay a sum around $32G's, and mark this, a political party that is chocked full of cash donations. 

... As a result of this alleged block Wright says. jeez I will pay $90,000 out of my own pocket because I am just a golly gee great guy. It doesn't matter. That amount is hush money, in a PMO orchestrated cover up. That's the reality of what he said under oath on the stand.

Pre-Post election circuit of Canada, now known as Canada

Historical view. Consider governing Canada as sort of like running a sound mixed farm. Needs a lot of fertilizer, needs occasional rotation, plowing in the stubble every few years and the farm hand needs changing every ten years or so because the sheep start laughing.

.....

Trash talking around the federal deselection circuit. So wrong Kathy. Wynne, future former Premier of Ontario, postulated that were he trapped in a time warp at the Cornfudgeration of Canada at Charlottetoon, Stephen Harper would not have constructed the transcontinental railway to British Columbia, now known as British Columbia.

Yes, Harper would have built the railway. From Houston, to as far as downtown Calgary, right beside the Palliser with a double barrel loop at the Stampede grounds. He'd call it the Keystoned and Gatesways Railroad (K&GRR).

Waiting for the Bus

Well. So much for Mulcair. To the Canadian electorate, the term "Coalition" is right up there with "kissing rattlesnakes."
... Being thrown under a bus is one thing. Jumping selfie under that bus presents another dynamic.
... Mulcair mentioned this idea, probably in passing. Throwing out the old trial balloon. Any politician, shouldn't muse. I read Machievelli. Trial balloons didn't appear in, "The Prince." Understanding Nicky Mack though, he would probably freak. Always look decisive even if one is not. Never muse on ideas beyond the capacity of your electorate to understand those musing. The idea rebounds from the good bouncing right into the bad.

... Trudeau won't bite on this one.

... The problem is this. Canadian are politically stupid. Go from there.

... In other legislatures and parliaments forming coalitions is a totally sound legitimate formation of government. Not in Canada. You can't expect people who only pay attention to politics six weeks out of the usual election cycle of 208 weeks to be exactly knowledgeable about the operations of a democratic government. For 202 weeks, the vast majority of Canadians don't want to hear about politics or any other global topic other than hockey.

... Harper put a scare into the voters last election when he simply mentioned the word "Coalition." He's a lousy leader, but he understands fear. Canadians are easily scared when it comes to anything outside of the home and workplace. Okay, include their cars. Any perception of threat to that world and the Canadian voter will turn their vote. They are so easily scared.

... And now Mulcair walks into the trap. Immediately after the election, in the waning lines of bull shit, then a minority government might seek partners whether public or secret. Canadian's back away, run away, from any political leader that even mentions Coalition. That statement was a serious mistake. The Conservatives are going to run that idea into the ground based less on merit than instilling fear.

Flame out

Peter MacKay's departure sends shockwaves through Harper's Conservative party. It also signals the final schism between the Progressives and the Conservatives that were merged about 80years ago. It also signals the final victory of the the movement begun by Preston Manning and his Reform Party which sought to usurp the more moderate Conservatives into leaving for other parties. Its brand is now pure. It not only merged with the old Progressive Conservatives

It should be noted that over the past two decades that the Reform Movement begun its serial rebrandings to take over the Conservative trademark, the Liberal Party and yes the New Democratic Party(NDP) have moved far to their version of their right wing. They are internally more Conservative.

Although on opposite sides of the political frame the path of the NDP and Conservatives are almost identical. Both were founded on, or at least in major part the foundation of Western political reform movements.  The NDP were founded on an alliance of the socialist CCF party and dissaffected Big "L" Liberals.

The stumbling Conservative movement in the Dirty Thirties merged with the Conservative half of the Progressive Party movement into the Progressive Conservative(PC). The merger of the Canadian Alliance (rebranded Reform Party) and old PCs in 2003 reflected two sides of the same coin. In each case the mainstream political hounds melded with the reform movements to gain their brand, and after a period of time expelled those reformers.

In the early 1970's, the NDP expelled Jame's Laxar Waffle which was a sub party conclave of upset socialists within that party that were pushing back the internal policy movement away from socialist leanings. Today's NDP is not a socialist organization. It is the Liberal rump that departed with Hazen Argue in the 1960s that dominates that party.

Similarly, although procedurally different the departure of MacKay symbolically defines the departure of the reform movement known as the Progressives, from the Harper ruled Conservatives. Whether this effects the ultimate result in the next October election is open to question. That election is still a long time away in politics. What can be said is that the century old political reform movements of the CCF and Progressives are now dead and buried with few young champions. Torches are not always past, sometimes they just burn out.