The Wild Rose Express coming round the mountain

Conservatives are mantra chant economics by introducing the false idea that this isn't a real recession. Two quarters of productivity decline is only one single number. There are other numbers that point to a reality that they know is just around on the other side of the mountain. Never dismiss just the statistic, begin by observing the economic problems in the People's Republic of China. Witness the numbers of ships sitting at anchor waiting around the globe, for cargo any cargo. The currency has declined. Stock markets kiss the bear. Interest rates are artificially too low. Take it all together. 

The 2008 recession was short and quick simply because it begun in the financial sector in the American, Fanny Mae debacle. The only reason that Canada appeared to do better was that the last set of banking regulations preserved economic stability. Harper took credit for it. In reality Paul Martin was the Liberal architect.

Thirty six thousand Albertans have been laid off. Small businesses will go belly up. Houses will stream onto the market, and worse a rapid rise in bankruptcies guaranteed early next year. Three Lake Freighters, are laid up in Toronto Harbour, you can see them from Sugar Beach. Its the first time since 1989, another stock market driven that ships were tied up. I've experienced the 1974 recession, the 1981 Reagancession, the 1988 recession which stretched through 1993 eliminated when Clinton took over the White House, 2008 blowup Fanny Mae Bushcession. I worked in pulp and paper during a localized industrial recession. That's the economic history.

I know something about recessions. And this one is far more serious than the Conservatives are willing to admit before the election. Its the same bunch of economic knuckle heads in Alberta who put that province into a very poor economic condition to line pockets by totally depending on the performance of a single natural nonrenewable resource. Worse still the incoming government is left holding the bag for a total economic disaster. It didn't matter which political party came into power in Alberta. The Harper type Conservatives literally raided the pantry and left everyone else holding the bag.

The only reason that things appear stable is because the Harper government is deliberately controlling the artificially low interest rate which shelters most people. Mark this... And mark this well. After October election, when the foppish Joe Oliver is no longer Finance Minister, regardless of which party wins the election, the base interest rates have to start rising, then that is when the real hardship on you is going to be felt for at least three probably four years.

Statistically, we are in recession but that interest rate has to come up to support, to stabilize the currency. Paul Martin is on the Liberal staff to encourage deliberate deficit spending. And that would be the same regardless. Why? Its because the Harper government rode the oil pony without making any effort to support the manufacturing sector in central and maritime Canada.

Harper has got it totally wrong. The next government has to be interventionist no matter who gets in power. He knows that the interest rates are going to rise after the end of October coming. The level of private debt in Canada is obscene right now. No politician is dealing with that as yet. The reality is that the Bank of Canada is protecting Harper by suppressing interest rates.

Raising interest rates does something to the economic situation. First it does support and stall the currency from going into a tail spin. Second it will only have positive results in the artificially obscene real estate market by causing a decline in housing prices, the correction that is coming like a locomotive pulling a train through a tunnel - you can hear it and very soon you will see it. Combined with the artificially low interest rates, the astronomically high housing prices, the collapse of the dollar, the recent downturn in stocks globally, the downturn in international industrial output, that train is coming. This isn't the end, what you are looking at is the cow catcher

Senate Reform or Deform a choice

It should be pointed out, that in his very first election he swore upside, down and sideways his aim to have a triple E Senate. Every single prospective Senator he appointed swore that he/she would support that reform.

... Well... foisted. He's just regurgitating a promise he made a decade ago.

... One reason that he didn't pursue reform was that all his consulting legal guys and the Supine Court of Canada said he needed a Constitutional Change. That good people is a pile of hooey. Why you say?

... Because it is left to the Prime MInister to recommend the names of those to the Crown for Senatorial appointment. There is nothing in the Constitutional procedure that dictates exactly how the Prime Minister selects those candidates.

... There is absolutely nothing preventing the Prime Minister requesting that the provincial government of that Senate seat vacancy furnish a name or names selected by sufferage of a part attached to the ballot of the next provincial election, by simply including the names nominated by each official political party in that province.

... The reason that most Prime Ministers would be reluctant to appoint a provincial nominee that wasn't a member of their own political ideology or party association. The advantage of appointing party hacks to the Senate is that they tend to tow the line. It is the real reason that Harper was reluctant to employ that simple method. He is after all a reputed control freak of the first order.

... Its just that selecting any provincial candidate(s) without political prejudice, or campaign contributors require a Prime Minister of exceptional ethical discipline. He/she would be often furnishing candidates he/she didn't like. Much like many former Prime Minister going back decades, Harper did not have the strength of character to do that simple and constitutionally correct method of picking new Senators.

... It should be pointed out that if in the event of a minority government and Harper would willingly flip back to the old mode if any of his legislation was threatened in the upper house. I rather suspect that if there was any NDP or Liberal minority, those Prime Ministers would gleefully stuff their party hacks into the Senate to overcome any Conservative Senatorial majority.

... And don't kid yourself, when push comes to shove it doesn't matter whether the Prime Minister is Harper, Mulcair, or Trudeau, all will be confronted by the ultimate paradox. Before the reform Bill or Act can be signed, or receive provincial constitutional ratification, that legislation must be approved by the Senate by vote. Its not the Supreme Court or the provinces that will be the major block, its the Senate itself.

... Certainly they will not vote in favour of their extinction. It is a cushy job chocked full of perks with little work, with even smaller effort. They will not give it up easily nor willingly as a group. Some will vote for reform, but that would be still a minority because most of those residing on those seats got their because they are not innovators nor people of ethical stripe, but because they are almost all political party hacks.

... Repairing the Senate people also must understand exactly what the original intent of the Senate was. The fact that it is supposed to be the house of sober second thought is beyond laughable. Its presence was instituted to protect the regions from the concentrated political power of Central Canada. It makes sense. It still does. It protects provincial rights. Canada has a very large physical land mass. The intent of the Senate structure was sound. It still can work effectively. If it did its job, regional alienation for independence would be counteracted. Had the Senators, and the House of Commons been up to the job, this problem would never have been needed for visitation. Oh curses, here we are.

... The NDP and others who lack appreciation of the original purpose of the Senate creation, fail to understand that had the Senate worked the way it is supposed to, it would facilitate a better political process than the one we have now. The major flaw of the Senate structure is that all the power resides in the Prime Minister. He's the one who selects or nominates those names to the Crown.

... This appointment structure led to two major difficulties. One all the Senators owe their loyalty to a single politician not to the regions that they are supposed to represent. The second problem is that in cases where the Prime Minister wants to expedite legislation through the sober thinkers instead of persuasion, the PM stuffs the Senate with useless and often corrupt party loyalists. As a result the Senate becomes a bloated monster.

... Without question, there are way too many Senators with a career incumbency beyond reality. They are Senators until they reach 75. They might resign to work in a real job. Resignations happen but most Senators remain in their plush jobs until death or 75 which ever comes first. Ideally all Senators should be on term limits, and replaced at the end of those terms at the pleasure of the province they represent, not the will of the federal Prime Minister.

... Then the maximum Senate Reform is abolition. That can and will be defeated by the Supreme Court on entrenched Constitutional clauses. However, simply reducing the number of Senators, removing the power of the Prime Minister in favor of the provincial governments with regard to appointing those Senators and that those nominees placed on a list subject to provincial suffrage.

... To make the process of selecting Senator even more effective, thirty Senator vacancies would be three from each province and another thirty from federal names selected from nominee lists provided by recognized official parties, and parsed by the percentage of the national popular vote from the previous but immediate federal election. The appointment terms would be eight years. Any vacancy caused by death or departure would remain vacant until the next federal election. But that will never happen as long as the power to appoint Senators remains solely in the hands of the Prime Minister.

... So this is the conundrum facing all the country, the greatest block to reforming the Canadian Senate is the Senate itself. Time has proved one thing, like the other party leaders occupying the PMO, Harper hasn't proved up to the job.