The Wild Rose Express coming round the mountain

Conservatives are mantra chant economics by introducing the false idea that this isn't a real recession. Two quarters of productivity decline is only one single number. There are other numbers that point to a reality that they know is just around on the other side of the mountain. Never dismiss just the statistic, begin by observing the economic problems in the People's Republic of China. Witness the numbers of ships sitting at anchor waiting around the globe, for cargo any cargo. The currency has declined. Stock markets kiss the bear. Interest rates are artificially too low. Take it all together. 

The 2008 recession was short and quick simply because it begun in the financial sector in the American, Fanny Mae debacle. The only reason that Canada appeared to do better was that the last set of banking regulations preserved economic stability. Harper took credit for it. In reality Paul Martin was the Liberal architect.

Thirty six thousand Albertans have been laid off. Small businesses will go belly up. Houses will stream onto the market, and worse a rapid rise in bankruptcies guaranteed early next year. Three Lake Freighters, are laid up in Toronto Harbour, you can see them from Sugar Beach. Its the first time since 1989, another stock market driven that ships were tied up. I've experienced the 1974 recession, the 1981 Reagancession, the 1988 recession which stretched through 1993 eliminated when Clinton took over the White House, 2008 blowup Fanny Mae Bushcession. I worked in pulp and paper during a localized industrial recession. That's the economic history.

I know something about recessions. And this one is far more serious than the Conservatives are willing to admit before the election. Its the same bunch of economic knuckle heads in Alberta who put that province into a very poor economic condition to line pockets by totally depending on the performance of a single natural nonrenewable resource. Worse still the incoming government is left holding the bag for a total economic disaster. It didn't matter which political party came into power in Alberta. The Harper type Conservatives literally raided the pantry and left everyone else holding the bag.

The only reason that things appear stable is because the Harper government is deliberately controlling the artificially low interest rate which shelters most people. Mark this... And mark this well. After October election, when the foppish Joe Oliver is no longer Finance Minister, regardless of which party wins the election, the base interest rates have to start rising, then that is when the real hardship on you is going to be felt for at least three probably four years.

Statistically, we are in recession but that interest rate has to come up to support, to stabilize the currency. Paul Martin is on the Liberal staff to encourage deliberate deficit spending. And that would be the same regardless. Why? Its because the Harper government rode the oil pony without making any effort to support the manufacturing sector in central and maritime Canada.

Harper has got it totally wrong. The next government has to be interventionist no matter who gets in power. He knows that the interest rates are going to rise after the end of October coming. The level of private debt in Canada is obscene right now. No politician is dealing with that as yet. The reality is that the Bank of Canada is protecting Harper by suppressing interest rates.

Raising interest rates does something to the economic situation. First it does support and stall the currency from going into a tail spin. Second it will only have positive results in the artificially obscene real estate market by causing a decline in housing prices, the correction that is coming like a locomotive pulling a train through a tunnel - you can hear it and very soon you will see it. Combined with the artificially low interest rates, the astronomically high housing prices, the collapse of the dollar, the recent downturn in stocks globally, the downturn in international industrial output, that train is coming. This isn't the end, what you are looking at is the cow catcher

Time for pinky swears

What can be done? A change is needed..

The next great reform to the Elections Act? After years of angst and agony imposed on the voting citizen, a change is needed. To reduce the quantity of unrealistic promises by candidates, the solution is simple. Pinky swear.

Every candidate's promises and speeches must be made under sworn oath. Lies and broken promises then can be litigated as perjury. This oath period begins once the writ is dropped, or when the official election campaign begins. Candidate's are bound to complain. Yet voters have the right to expect those successful candidates to keep their promises and political affiliation.

A political campaign is much like an employment resume and application. Those segments are conducted and signed by the applicant as being legally true. The average successful new employee is legally expected to tell the truth on that application. If its a lie. They are fired.

Then to protect joe average citizen, all politicians promises and speeches must now have legal force. Everything they say or promise is made under sworn oath.

Betrayed

People kind of really miss the set of ethical points in this sad set of events regarding the Duffy fraud trial. First, Duffy (and colleagues) are alleged to filed substantial fraudulent expense claims. It doesn't matter whether or not the amount is repaid. Let's put it this way. A murderer kills a victim. The crime is murder. Gun, knife, poison or something lethal, is only relevant to the fact that this person unlawfully killed another.

... The same here. The crime is fraud, it matters little whether or not it was for money, goods or love. Think about this. It isn't the matter as to the quantity or amount of money or benefit. The crime is the manner of how that said target was acquired. It doesn't really matter about restitution. Repaying the money may mitigate punishment, but does little to diminish intent. Duffy is alleged to have filed fake residential information and received benefits related to the false information he provided. He also is accused of falsely (fraudulently) filled claims to receive coverage of expenses on journeys to Conservative political events by claiming them as business trips related to Senate business. So the money is of little issue other than being benefit, its the method by which that money was sought.

... Second. People must understand that it doesn't matter whether or not the amount gleaned from a fraud is $90K or Ninety dollars. What is emerging is a concerted effort by Nigel Wright to mitigate Duffy's activities by repaying the amount in question before the Senate auditors could scour the books. This was a coverup scheme emanating from one or more executives in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).

... Now, the truth is Harper might not have known the specifics. There is more than sufficient evidence to indicate that he might have known about the plan, there is no smoking cigarette. What can be proved at the moment. Harper appointed Nigel Wright to his staff. Harper recommended Duffy for Senate appointment. Harper chose every single one of his PMO associates and executives. Its Harper's office. Regardless of what he might have, or might not have known, the grand architect of this corrupt edifice is Stephen Harper, he is totally and completely responsible.

... Remember a long time ago when the Liberals were in scandal, and Harper, the chief opposition leader, demanded that government be clear and accountable. Harper is totally one hundred percent accountable for the actions of his staff. It is why the Conservatives picked him to be leader. It is why people voted for him. Yet on something basically obvious as this set of events, Harper still hasn't lived up to his very own, promised standards of accountability.

... More confusion here about Nigel Wright. Since it has been his testimony under oath. Nigel Wright did attempt to arrange the hush money payoff to Duffy. So people seem to view him as honest and loyal. Both are admirable qualities however, this doesn't make him a good guy. Wright is a bad guy. He tried to payoff hush money to Duffy. That's no good deed. Its a bad thing.

... Here's the reality. Yes this whole affair insults Canadians. But whether or not they like it, its the supporters of the Conservatives that have been wrongly served. It matters little whether or not there was any criminality. What is very real, is that they wanted a government that is clear, responsible and accountable. Harper didn't deliver on any of those hopes at all. Conservatives are completely betrayed.

Linda launches Conservatives into high orbit

I recall that when the oilsands projects were first approved the environmental assessment ascertained that there was an upper limit of crude production that was both economically sustainable and environmentally sustainable. Construction of the two plants at the time went to that limit. People sort of forget that people, Canadians of First Nations heritage, lived and hunted in that area for countless generations.
... And along comes Linda McQuaig present NDP hopeful for the riding of Toronto Centre in the upper coming federal election. Please endure this elongated campaign. Lots of these little missives are bound to send Conservatives into faux high orbit. They are a desperate lot. McQuaig will never be any part of any government. They are grasping onto straws. Of course a lot of people don't realize that there is a greater chance of an Ice Age next year, than there is of McQuaig winning that particular riding. Is her candidacy a good one. Yes, in every other riding other than Toronto Centre.
... The whole vomiting scandal stems from a comment she made at a panel on power and politics. She pointed out the patently obvious. In order for Canada to meet its global warming targets they may have to close off some oilsand's production. That comment fails to measure out as a mystery. Nor unexpected. It is an option. Marvel that, the world still has options.
... Since the beginnings of the resource extraction the continuing production of oilsands crude exceeded the original limits of those first environmental assessments. Frankly here we are. Canadians discussing at each other angrily in an election to determine the productive capacity of a resource that is constitutionally totally within the provincial power. Alberta determines the oilsands production not Ottawa.
... The dilemma totally falls into the lap of the Alberta government. It aggressively promoted expanded oilsands production past the safe limit predetermined by the original environmental reports. It did this in the face of declining revenues as the easy to reach oil and gas reserves became depleted.
... This woman, only a candidate, not an elected MP, is expressing a concern for the global environment which is in itself perfectly legitimate. There are Conservatives, once good members of the present day manifestation of the Conservative Party who share this deep concern for the global climate effects of fossil extraction and burning.
... Had the Alberta government(s) adhered to the original production limits, this whole discussion would be moot. I remember when Peter Lougheed introduced the Heritage Fund with the goal of creating economic diversity and a hedge fund for the future. That noble legacy has obviously been squandered. The rest of the globe, the rest of Canada, should not suffer for this degree of resource mismanagement.
... Regardless of who comes to power federally or provincially whether right wing or left wing, the reality is that the oilsands production must be reassessed as to its real environmental sustainability. Even after the inevitable banning of the burning fossil fuels, oil as a resource will be of great value, especially those with established infrastructure and distribution channels. To hinge a whole party's policy upon the words of a single unelectable candidate.
... Why unelectable? Why prominent? She's running in Toronto Centre. Even Mulcair's written that one off. Besides, Mulcair wouldn't want her as part of the caucus. She's super intelligent, perceptive and prone to ask awkward questions. So into the rearview mirror, luv ya Linda

Trump's short term success

Astounding. Universal Medical Care (UMC) is not necessarily a right or left wing social program. The creation of Ontario UMC or OHIP was enthusiastically created by Conservatives. You know why? It made Ontario economically competitive. Here is a basic economic reality. A healthy population is a happy population. A happy population is a productive population. Duh.
... Thousands of people(of every political background) back then were losing their homes or facing a lifetime of crushing debt, if they or a family member encountered a health crisis by accidental injury or unexpected chronic illness. However, it was not designed to cover normal childbirth nor abortion. It was not meant to cover plastic surgery. It was not meant to cover the pseudo-therapies like those foisted on gullible people by chiropractor quacks.
... Further to this point, a the year of 2008 of all the G-8 industrial nations, the ONLY one that did not have UMC or an affordable health insurance plan was the United States. The nation with the highest health (costs both in direct or GDP calculation) was the United States. UMC or an affordable national health plans work as a social program both for public and private commercial interests. The ONLY political group globally who fanatically opposes UMC are the Yankee Republicans. You wanna know why? They aren't Conservatives, they are morons.
... Here's a current surprise whether you fixate on being considered right or left wing. One of the two remaining social issues funded through government in Canada is a Guaranteed Annual Income, [GAI]. GAI program is a social program designed provide a better more consistent social support than the present day balkan Welfare, Workfare or Disability Support programs. The biggest Canadian advocate for a GAI is not Liberal nor NDP. In fact those two alleged liberal parties, aren't very good at structuring social programs in a way to maximize social support delivery and minimizing the fiscal impact on taxation. The biggest voice is former Conservative Senator Hugh Segal.
... Trust me. Segal is in every sense a Conservative. But he is a Conservative who understands that not all social programs or public ownership commitments are bad. Global economic success depends on effective social programs designed to support weaknesses in the socio-economic matrix. In other words, an effectively run social support system is not the province of right or left wing ideologies. It is however the possession of those politicians able to envision the benefits of a social program to benefit the national interest.
... Idolizing the US Republicans as representative of a sound Conservative thought, is plain stupid. They are not true Conservatives but human troglodytes harping back to the times of the laissez faire, the economic environment of Imperial France of the Sun King; and then apply Darwinian Theory (a botanical matrix) to economics. There are many claiming to be Conservatives without ever making an effort to exactly understand what a true Conservative political ideology is. They are not Conservatives they are ignorant. The politicians of the United States Republican Party lack any intellectual dynamic with regard to comprehending the nature of the global economic matrix.
... So when it comes to Trump's support of UMC isn't surprising. UMC properly structured is taxation well spent. UMC is always good for business. John Robarts and William Davis both Conservative Premiers of Ontario introduced OHIP not because of political ideology but because it was in the best economic interest of Ontario.
... Trump unfortunately lacks political skill. And there are, in various emerging political dilemmas, that political parties whether claiming right or left wing allegiances that adopt a political promise that makes sound business sense. Paul Martin made for the best Minister of Finance in Canadian history. Compare that with the loathsome sluggish thought processes of Joe Oliver. One a liberal, balanced the budget and created a business environment benefiting the national interest. The latter supported economic theory that tied the Canadian economy to the health of one single resource (big oil) to the exclusion of eastern based industrial and manufacturing and its resulting collapse catapults Canada into another unbalanced budget and imminent catastrophic economic recession. Oliver used to be a banker. He should know better. Harper chose him to replace a more effective Flaherty.
... Trump clumsily insulted Mexicans. Yet he identified (rather badly) a huge immigration problem in the USA. Mexico is doing what Cuba did. And in Canada's case doing what Alberta has done to BC and Ontario for about six decades. The Mexicans are doing exactly what my hometown did when they created a municipal environment so toxic to their own poor citizens that they moved to Thunder Bay, which did exactly the same thing in turn by moving those problems onto Toronto. A lot of governments national, provincial and municipal move problems like paying forward to larger economies. They use government policy to move their social problems to other jurisdictions.
... Trump just tapped into that political reality. Got condemned by the Thought Police of every political stripe. There are serious problems in the United States. Trump is a Conservative, just not imprisoned by it. He articulates a problem like a businessman. He fails in defining it politically. Trump would make a better President than the other politicians of the Republican party. UMC is not just the property of left wing ideologues. Immigration problems belong to all. Civic irresponsibility emerges from political hacks claiming both political ideas. At the moment, that is why Trump is leading in the polls.

Flame out

Peter MacKay's departure sends shockwaves through Harper's Conservative party. It also signals the final schism between the Progressives and the Conservatives that were merged about 80years ago. It also signals the final victory of the the movement begun by Preston Manning and his Reform Party which sought to usurp the more moderate Conservatives into leaving for other parties. Its brand is now pure. It not only merged with the old Progressive Conservatives

It should be noted that over the past two decades that the Reform Movement begun its serial rebrandings to take over the Conservative trademark, the Liberal Party and yes the New Democratic Party(NDP) have moved far to their version of their right wing. They are internally more Conservative.

Although on opposite sides of the political frame the path of the NDP and Conservatives are almost identical. Both were founded on, or at least in major part the foundation of Western political reform movements.  The NDP were founded on an alliance of the socialist CCF party and dissaffected Big "L" Liberals.

The stumbling Conservative movement in the Dirty Thirties merged with the Conservative half of the Progressive Party movement into the Progressive Conservative(PC). The merger of the Canadian Alliance (rebranded Reform Party) and old PCs in 2003 reflected two sides of the same coin. In each case the mainstream political hounds melded with the reform movements to gain their brand, and after a period of time expelled those reformers.

In the early 1970's, the NDP expelled Jame's Laxar Waffle which was a sub party conclave of upset socialists within that party that were pushing back the internal policy movement away from socialist leanings. Today's NDP is not a socialist organization. It is the Liberal rump that departed with Hazen Argue in the 1960s that dominates that party.

Similarly, although procedurally different the departure of MacKay symbolically defines the departure of the reform movement known as the Progressives, from the Harper ruled Conservatives. Whether this effects the ultimate result in the next October election is open to question. That election is still a long time away in politics. What can be said is that the century old political reform movements of the CCF and Progressives are now dead and buried with few young champions. Torches are not always past, sometimes they just burn out.