Wednesday, September 02, 2015

The Wild Rose Express coming round the mountain

Conservatives are mantra chant economics by introducing the false idea that this isn't a real recession. Two quarters of productivity decline is only one single number. There are other numbers that point to a reality that they know is just around on the other side of the mountain. Never dismiss just the statistic, begin by observing the economic problems in the People's Republic of China. Witness the numbers of ships sitting at anchor waiting around the globe, for cargo any cargo. The currency has declined. Stock markets kiss the bear. Interest rates are artificially too low. Take it all together. 

The 2008 recession was short and quick simply because it begun in the financial sector in the American, Fanny Mae debacle. The only reason that Canada appeared to do better was that the last set of banking regulations preserved economic stability. Harper took credit for it. In reality Paul Martin was the Liberal architect.

Thirty six thousand Albertans have been laid off. Small businesses will go belly up. Houses will stream onto the market, and worse a rapid rise in bankruptcies guaranteed early next year. Three Lake Freighters, are laid up in Toronto Harbour, you can see them from Sugar Beach. Its the first time since 1989, another stock market driven that ships were tied up. I've experienced the 1974 recession, the 1981 Reagancession, the 1988 recession which stretched through 1993 eliminated when Clinton took over the White House, 2008 blowup Fanny Mae Bushcession. I worked in pulp and paper during a localized industrial recession. That's the economic history.

I know something about recessions. And this one is far more serious than the Conservatives are willing to admit before the election. Its the same bunch of economic knuckle heads in Alberta who put that province into a very poor economic condition to line pockets by totally depending on the performance of a single natural nonrenewable resource. Worse still the incoming government is left holding the bag for a total economic disaster. It didn't matter which political party came into power in Alberta. The Harper type Conservatives literally raided the pantry and left everyone else holding the bag.

The only reason that things appear stable is because the Harper government is deliberately controlling the artificially low interest rate which shelters most people. Mark this... And mark this well. After October election, when the foppish Joe Oliver is no longer Finance Minister, regardless of which party wins the election, the base interest rates have to start rising, then that is when the real hardship on you is going to be felt for at least three probably four years.

Statistically, we are in recession but that interest rate has to come up to support, to stabilize the currency. Paul Martin is on the Liberal staff to encourage deliberate deficit spending. And that would be the same regardless. Why? Its because the Harper government rode the oil pony without making any effort to support the manufacturing sector in central and maritime Canada.

Harper has got it totally wrong. The next government has to be interventionist no matter who gets in power. He knows that the interest rates are going to rise after the end of October coming. The level of private debt in Canada is obscene right now. No politician is dealing with that as yet. The reality is that the Bank of Canada is protecting Harper by suppressing interest rates.

Raising interest rates does something to the economic situation. First it does support and stall the currency from going into a tail spin. Second it will only have positive results in the artificially obscene real estate market by causing a decline in housing prices, the correction that is coming like a locomotive pulling a train through a tunnel - you can hear it and very soon you will see it. Combined with the artificially low interest rates, the astronomically high housing prices, the collapse of the dollar, the recent downturn in stocks globally, the downturn in international industrial output, that train is coming. This isn't the end, what you are looking at is the cow catcher

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